Today we received loads of additional information about Intel's future. Apart from the fresh roadmaps, our reader Ken reported that Intel issued bunch of interesting facts in regards their future plans in their webcast issued on the 22nd. Some of the details were reported yesterday in this news-story, but a lot of the remaining seem to be very interesting.
First of all, let us talk about the up and coming Pentium 4 "Prescott" processor. According to the current plans, Intel will launch them in the second half next year. The newcomers will provide the Hyper-Threading II technology (that is the official name of the Prescott New Instructions, PNI) and will be made using the advanced 90 nanometer process. Yesterday it was reported that the novelty will be able to hit the 5.0GHz mark easily, and we now confirm this fact.
What is extremely important, Intel will speed up the transition to the 90 nanometer manufacturing process. By the end of the second quarter 2003, 90 nanometer products will represent 5% of all processors made by Intel. By the end of the third quarter next year, the figure will achieve 20% of all CPU chips from the largest semiconductor manufacturer and by the end of the year, the company will make 40% of the processors using this technology. The trend to implement the newest processes as fast as possible will also continue in 2004. By the end of the first half, the company will make 90% of their CPUs using 90 nanometer technology. After that, the company will immediately start to make the transition on the 65 nanometer process.
As for the ramp to 300 mm wafers, according to Intel, they will make approximately 25% of production on 300 mm in the first half of 2003, about 60% in the second half of the year, more than 80% in early 2004 and will finish the transition in the second half 2004. Basically, almost all, or maybe all, processors made using 90 nanometer technology, will also feature the 300 mm wafers.
Well, both Intel and Prudential Securities' analysts state that AMD's ClawHammer processors will not be successful and in demand. So, why they become so aggressive nowadays in launching the high-end CPUs? The gross margins of Intel Corporation are expected to be again below 50% next year, according to the official statement, as a result, the profit margins will be even lower, provided that they upgrade a lot of equipment on their fabs.
As for the 64-bit processors from Intel, they claim that the Madison CPUs will be up to 30%-50% faster than the current Itanium 2 CPUs. The Itanium 2 is currently one of the most-powerful chips in the world, hence, with the newcomer Intel will get the fastest CPU in the planet. Of course, the performance is not the only fact that is considered by the vendors when choosing a CPU, but it is still very important to note, that after eleven years of development, Intel will have the most-powerful chips for the servers.
On the mobile field Intel will offer two series of the processors, tailored to use in mobile computers: the Banias and the Dothan, manufactured using 0.13 and 0.09 micron technology accordingly. The company will initially offer Banias processors with clock-speeds of 1.3, 1.4, 1,5 and 1.6GHz and respectively priced at $209, $294, $423 and $637. It should be mentioned that the price: performance ratio will remain the same during the next year, with the current family's top model priced at $637, and the lower-end at $209. For instance, the 1.7GHz Banias will be launched with a price of $637, shuffling the older models into the next lower price steps, and with the 1.3GHz model being discontinued in the second quarter. The newcomer will be made on 0.13 micron with 200 mm wafers. The elder brethren of the Banias, code-named Dothan, is rumoured to appear in the second half of 2003 and will be not only 1.5 times faster than the predecessor and be able to hit 2.4GHz, but will be made using 300 mm wafers, hence, will cost less to manufacture. The Dothan will also consume less power compared to the Banias.
The year 2003 will be really tough for AMD. They will have to compete with extremely aggressive rival starting from the third quarter. In this case, they may now change the plans and start to push the ClawHammer processors in the second quarter in order to fulfil the demand on the high-end CPUs. They year will also be hard for Intel itself. Being so fast in terms of adopting certain new technologies costs a lot of money, while the market is in critical condition these days.
News Source: X-bit Labs
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