Speed limits on P4 could open window for AMD

[ecperez]

THE MOST RECENT roadmap we saw from the Intel Corporation warns motherboard makers that with the introduction of 3.06GHz Pentium 4 in Q4, the designers are creating a somewhat new die layout for the Northwood process.
This new layout might well be related to some significant errata in the processor, which we reported a few weeks ago.

But with the introduction of 512K cache "Barton" AMD XP chips, we think that Intel may well be giving the smaller chip company a real chance to catch up again on the clock speed front, irrespective of any Clawhammer introductions in Q4 this year or Q1 the next.

In fact, the roadmaps only show Intel able to reach something like 3.20GHz on Pentium 4s, and AMD might well have an additional lease of life in the constantly changing Megahurts Madness both firms play.

One problem, according to sources close to the matter, is that when the internal chip frequency hits 6GHz, as it does with the 3.06GHz because the adders are double clocked to get the work done in a single pipeline cycle, Intel will have to eventually re-engineer the design of the P4 to keep it viable. But such a task is of such magnitude that to achieve the frequencies the firm is projecting in 2005 or so, it is probably more realistic to start another design rather than re-engineer all the innards of the processor.

The same roadmaps show Intel has to swap to a 90 nanometer process for the Pentium 4 to achieve higher clock speeds. While some people are speculating that Intel may demo machines clocking at significantly higher frequencies at the Intel Developer Forum in San Jose this week, the new chemistry AMD is producing could give Chipzilla some real headaches.

The speculation is that Barton speeds might significantly increase over the next three to six months, giving AMD the performance crown at a time when it needs it, and also allowing them to slip in the Clawhammer as a performance booster too.

We're confident that Intel will be able to produce the 90 nano technology, but the P4 at 90 nano surely has to be the end of the road for this particular design.